#ANYLOGIC GAZPROM FULL#

At least it was 2000 leading into the crash.įigure 2 Stacked chart of US oil and gas directed drilling. Today, the oil+gas rig count stands at 650, not yet so low as 1998/99 but proportionally much lower since the drilling fleet size is now 2000. The chart shows that back then US operational rigs fell from 1000 to 500 before making a sharp recovery. Below I take a closer look at the oil price crash of 1998 / 99. US oil and gas drilling rig count continues to fall steadily but not so steeply as during the early stage of the oil price crash.UK North Sea oil production is rising for the first time since 1999.With a market capitalisation of £36 billion, BHP can withstand balance sheet losses such as this more easily than the smaller shale players. They just announced a $7 billion write down on their US shale assets. BHP Billiton, with Australian roots, listed in London but with global operations is one of the World’s largest diversified energy companies with stakes in oil & gas, coal and uranium mining.The engine behind the commodities super cycle looks like it may take some time out for repairs. The Chinese stock market has crashed again and looks like it could now head much lower leaving major questions about the general state of the Chinese economy.Personally I don’t believe this transaction will ever take place since investors will be buying into production and not reserves, in a Nation that lies at the centre of turmoil in the Middle East. They would rather sell the family silver than back down from their course towards national ruin. This confirms the precarious state of Saudi finances but also Saudi commitment to staying the strategic course. Saudi Arabia has floated the idea of selling a 10% stake in Aramco, the Saudi State oil company.

#ANYLOGIC GAZPROM FULL#

Regardless of whichever comes to pass, Iran returning to full exports makes the over-supply situation worse. In my Oil Price Scenarios for 2016 post I assumed 800,000 bpd additional oil from Iran. Recent estimates suggest an additional 500,000 bpd exports. Sanctions against Iran, as expected by all, have been lifted clearing the decks for full oil exports to resume.So the answer to our question is an emphatic yes. The IEA observes:Ī procession of investment banks has warned that oil prices “could” fall to $25/bbl, $20/bbl or, in one case, $10/bbl. The main headline is that global total liquids supply was 96.88 Mbpd in December, down 90,000 bpd on November. The January OMR with data for December was published today and I’ve waited to see what it had to say before publishing this post. This alone will work against price recovery in the near term. Seasonally, demand for oil is always weak in the first and second quarters. The fundamentals of over-supply remain and so there is no reason to believe that the oil price crash will turn at this point. In detail, the support level has already been pricked and on a deflated basis, that support is already broken. On a money of the day basis, the oil price has now reached the lows, and support level, seen in the wake of the 2008 finance crash. Adjusted for inflation, that is approximately $15/bbl in today’s money. The last time we had an over-supply based rout was 1998/99 (arrow) where in money of the day, Brent bottomed at $10/bbl.

But supply demand fundamentals are against that. The most recent falls have taken the oil price to the 2008 lows that technically may provide price support. This article was originally published on the Energy Matters blog.įigure 1 Long term picture of WTI and Brent daily spot oil prices. It is time to have a closer look at what history tells us. The notion of $20 oil has since caught on and some commentators are now speculating that $10 is possible. This observation was based on deflated annual average price from BP ($2014). Brent will need to fall below $30 to match the lows seen in 1986 and to below $20 to match the lows seen in 1998. In August 2015 I gave a crude answer to that question based on history in a post called The Oil Price: how low is low? where I observed: There has recently been an acceleration in activity and news, and as the oil price has continued its fall to below $30, investors and speculators wrestle with the main question: “how low will the oil price go?”

I have been following the oil price crash since it began in late 2014, providing annual forecast scenarios and monthly vital statistics updates.

Anylogic gazprom